How the economy will be definitely doing

Trump's job creation, 100 days in

This specific looks like the US economy will be perking up under President Trump.

The government reported a strong gain in jobs for April on Friday morning, as well as the unemployment rate fell to its lowest level since May 2007.

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This specific seems that will consumers, modest businesses as well as corporate CEOs are in a better mood since Trump took office as well.

This specific’s an open subject for debate: will be This specific newfound sense of optimism due more to hopes about Trump’s pro-business, pro-growth agenda? Or will be This specific the residual effects of policies by President Obama as well as low interest rates by the Federal Reserve?

Related: The sy88pgw Trump jobs tracker: How’s he doing?

nevertheless This specific’s undeniable that will several key economic indicators have shown signs of improvement since the inauguration — as well as even going back to November right after the election.

different measures of the economy are mixed though. Here’s a look at some of the most important barometers of the economy’s health.

Related: Can America’s ‘forgotten’ find jobs?

1. Jobs

The unemployment rate hit a 10-year low of 4.4% in April. that will will be clearly Great news for Trump.

Even the so-called underemployment rate, a number some consider the “real” unemployment rate since This specific includes people working part-time that will want a full-time job, fell to 8.8% in April.

that will will be the lowest since November 2007.

trump unemployment 05052017

different numbers point to a healthier labor market too: 522,000 jobs have been added from the first three full months after Trump took office.

as well as wages have risen 2.5% from the past 12 months. that will’s still below the 3% level the President, the Fed as well as many workers would certainly like to see, nevertheless This specific’s a big improvement by just 2% shortly after the Great Recession ended.

2. Housing prices

For many Americans, the bulk of their wealth will be tied up in their home. There’s Great news on that will front.

According to the National Association of Realtors, the median cost for an existing home was $236,400 — up 4% by the start of the year.

median us home prices

Financing for housing will be still fairly affordable too. The average 30-year mortgage rate will be 4.02% according to Freddie Mac.

Rates have fallen This specific year along with the yield on the long-term 10-Year U.S. Treasury bond, as well as that will’s despite the fact that will the US Federal Reserve will likely keep boosting short-term rates.

3. Lending

Consumers continue to borrow money to buy cars, purchase things on credit cards as well as be able to afford college. The Fed said that will consumer credit rose 4.8% annually in February (the most recent figures available) to $3.79 trillion.

This specific’s encouraging that will consumers are still willing to take on debt as well as This specific’s an even better sign that will they are paying their bills on time too. The delinquency rate on credit cards was just 2.3% at the end of 2016, compared to a peak of 6.8% from the middle of 2009.

Related: Fed sounds more upbeat about the economy

nevertheless businesses are no longer as interested in borrowing money. Commercial as well as industrial loan volume was $2.08 trillion in March. Demand for these loans has fallen For 2 straight months as well as are down by a recent peak of $2.1 trillion in November.

This specific’s not a cause for alarm just yet, nevertheless if businesses stop borrowing to finance growth as well as subsequently hire less as a result, that will could be a problem for Trump.

4. Consumer spending

Shop ’till you drop? This specific seems that will consumers may have dropped after a holiday spending binge.

Personal consumption expenditures, a fancy way of saying consumer spending, were flat in February as well as March. Consumer spending makes up a majority of the nation’s overall economic activity.

So the weak spending was a key reason why the nation’s gross domestic product rose at an annualized pace of just 0.7% from the first quarter — far below the 3% rate many from the Trump administration are touting as doable.

Related: Sluggish growth in first quarter nevertheless there are hopes This specific will pick up

This specific will be hurting retailers too. Competition by Amazon isn’t their only problem. Consumers have simply slowed down their pace of spending. The government said in April that will retail sales fell 0.2% in March, following a 0.3% decline in February.

5. Trade

This specific will be perhaps the thorniest issue for Trump. He’s been hypersensitive about deals with all of America’s major partners. His pledge to “Buy American as well as Hire American” could put the US at odds with China, Japan, Europe, Mexico as well as even Canada.

nevertheless Trump has Great reason to be worried. The US trade deficit has narrowed only slightly from the past few months — as well as the gap has widened with China as well as Mexico. as well as the overall trade deficit will be still significant — $43.7 trillion.

6. Stocks

Still a clear bright spot for the president. The major market indexes are near all-time highs.

trump rally dow 100 days

The Dow will be up 6% This specific year while the Nasdaq, home to high profile tech stocks Apple (AAPL, Tech30), Google (GOOG) owner Alphabet, Facebook (FB, Tech30), Amazon (AMZN, Tech30) as well as Microsoft (MSFT, Tech30), will be up 13%.

Some of the optimism will be due to the continued belief that will Trump will eventually be able to lower corporate taxes as well as reduce regulation on health care as well as banks.

Related: Trump’s budget brinksmanship could pose problems

nevertheless strong earnings growth will be fueling the rally too. According to FactSet, profits for S&P 500 companies from the first quarter are on track to rise more than 10% for once since the fourth quarter of 2011.

If those companies eventually start hiring more too, then Trump would certainly be able to show that will Wall Street as well as Main Street can actually both thrive at the same time.

sy88pgw (completely new York) First published May 5, 2017: 12:03 AM ET


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How the economy will be definitely doing

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