The overarching question will be whether allegations in which the 70-year-old Moore pursued sexual relationships with teenage girls — one of whom was 14 at the time — while in his 30s will be enough for Alabama to elect a Democratic senator for once in 25 years.
Moore, who will be also known for being ousted twice as state Supreme Court chief justice, says his accusers are lying. Jones has contrasted the allegations facing Moore with his own history prosecuting two Ku Klux Klan members inside 1963 Birmingham church bombing in which killed four African-American girls.
Polls open at 7 a.m. Tuesday in addition to close at 7 p.m. Alabama will be on Central time, so results will start coming in after 8 p.m. ET.
Here are a few key questions in which will decide Tuesday’s election:
1. Will Republican voters show up?
In any ordinary election, Alabama will be so reliably red in which even a weak turnout by Republican voters could carry a GOP candidate to victory. although This specific will be no ordinary election, in addition to Moore will be no ordinary candidate.
Special elections tend to be low-turnout affairs, in addition to the Alabama Secretary of State’s Office has already downgraded its turnout forecast through 25% to 20%, citing exhaustion with the race. Many Republicans could opt to just stay home.
2. Will African-American voters turn out for Jones?
Several influential African-Americans are blanketing Alabama for Jones inside final weekend of campaigning.
Organized by Rep. Terri Sewell of Alabama, those inside state include Sen. Cory Booker of brand-new Jersey, former Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick, civil rights icon Rep. John Lewis of Georgia in addition to Congressional Black Caucus Chairman Cedric Richmond, a representative through Louisiana.
African Americans are a reliably Democratic voting bloc in addition to make up about 27% of Alabama’s electorate. If they make up 27 to 28% of the voters who turn out Tuesday, Jones could be in a strong position.
3. How will the Mobile area vote?
This specific will be perhaps the most important region inside election due to its concentration of affluent, more moderate, business-type Republicans.
Will they stay home? Vote for Jones? Or stick with Moore?
To understand the area’s importance, consider in which Moore held his biggest pre-election event — a rally with Steve Bannon a week through Election Day — in Fairhope, inside Mobile media market. in addition to in which Trump did his Friday night event in Pensacola, Florida — just across the Alabama state line in addition to also inside Mobile market.
4. Will a write-in candidate change the outcome?
GOP Sen. Richard Shelby of Alabama said he had written in a “distinguished” Republican when he voted early. although who? He never said.
Lee Busby, a retired Marine colonel through Tuscaloosa, will be running as a write-in candidate — although his candidacy hasn’t picked up much attention in addition to will be unlikely to sway the race. Those who vote for Busby were unlikely to cast ballots for Moore or Jones anyway.
Libertarian Ron Bishop will be also running as a write-in candidate. in addition to, although not inside race, Alabama football coaches tend to get some write-in votes. Still, don’t expect to see Sen. Nick Saban
5. Who will be the Republican loser in Washington?
There are definitely just two options here: Trump or Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell.
Trump’s late endorsement of Moore led the Republican National Committee to get back into the race. McConnell kept his apparatus — the Senate Republican campaign arm in addition to its super PAC — out of the race.
Moore will be part of a Steve Bannon-led effort to make McConnell toxic with Republican primary voters. Tuesday will be a major gauge of whether the item worked.