First-year presidential economies: by Carter to Trump

How much credit does Trump get for the strong economy?

Unemployment at a 17-year low. The stock market setting records. Consumer confidence near its best level since 2000.

There’s a lot to like about the economy during the first year of the Trump administration.

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Economists along with historians will tell you of which presidents get too much credit or blame for the state of the economy, especially in their first year when their policies have only barely started off to affect businesses along with consumers. Many factors make the country’s economic fortunes go up along with down.

along with the economy doesn’t have an on-off switch of which gets flipped every four or eight years.

“We tend to act like the economy is actually based on what the president does. of which’s just the way the national mind thinks of things,” said historian Douglas Brinkley. “however there are so many forces at play. If the stock market is actually setting records or unemployment is actually low, you might as well take credit because you’ll be blamed when the idea goes the additional way.”

At the same time, the president — along with lawmakers on Capitol Hill — clearly play a central role shaping economic along with financial policy. Plus, the president includes a bully pulpit of which can influence sentiment.

presidential economics

We looked at the facts — key measures within the first year of the seven presidents who have served over the last four decades. We used employment numbers through November of each year since the December data under President Trump has yet to be released.

Jimmy Carter – 1977

Carter is actually generally remembered as a president who had a bad economy during his one term in office.

presidents first year carter 2

however the first year was pretty not bad. The economy had come out of recession about two years before he took office, along with the idea was starting to pick up speed as he was sworn in.

The problems came later in Carter’s administration, when the economy fell into recession in January 1980 as he prepared to run for reelection. The combination of high inflation along with high unemployment led to the use of the term “misery index” of which combined those two readings, along with helped to lead to his defeat.

Jobs created: 3.5 million
Unemployment: Fell by 7.5% to 6.8%
S&P 500: Ended the year at 95.10, down 11.5%
GDP: 4.6%

Ronald Reagan – 1981

The economy did well during Reagan’s eight years in office, however the first year was a difficult one. The economy fell into recession in July 1981, a relatively long downturn of which lasted until November 1982.

presidents first year reagan 2

however Reagan is actually proof of which a bad first year can quickly be forgotten by what happens later in a president’s tenure.

“the idea’s not after year one or two of which people judge a president,” said Brinkley. “of which can affect midterm elections. however what presidents are remembered for are the numbers when they leave office.”

Jobs created: 130,000
Unemployment: Rose by 7.5% to 8.3%
S&P 500: Ended the year at 122.55, down 9.7%
GDP: 2.6%

George H.W. Bush – 1989

The first President Bush shows the advantages of inheriting a strong economy. Employers were hiring, along with the overall economy was growing in 1989.

presidents first year bush 2

All This kind of was enough for the stock market to shoot higher — the best first year performance of any of these seven presidents.

however the not bad news didn’t last. The economy fell into recession by the following summer, along with even though the idea was a short downturn, unemployment continued to climb through most of the election year of 1992. along with the troubled economy helped lead to his defeat within the election of which year.

Jobs created: 1.6 million
Unemployment: Unchanged at 5.4%
S&P 500: Ended the year at 353.4, up 27.3%
GDP: 3.7%

Bill Clinton – 1993

Clinton had a strong economy throughout his tenure, however his first year was nothing to get excited about.

presidents first year clinton 2

Unemployment was relatively high when he took office along with the idea remained mostly unchanged, though somewhat higher, by the end of 1993. GDP growth was not bad however not great. The stock market posted modest gains.

Later in his term the tech boom led to a very strong economy. Unemployment fell below 4% in his final year in office. The federal government actually started off running surpluses rather than deficits. however of which was all difficult to foresee in Clinton’s first year in 1993.

Jobs created: 2.2 million
Unemployment: Rose by 7.3% to 7.4%
S&P 500: Ended the year at 466.45, up 7.1%
GDP: 2.7%

George W. Bush – 2001

The economy fell into recession in March 2001, shortly after George W. Bush was sworn into office. along with economic numbers for the year were pretty poor as a result. While the recession was over by November, the idea limited GDP growth for the full year. Employers cut jobs along with unemployment jumped. Stocks fell.

presidents first year wbush 2

With the terrorist attack of 9/11, most of the country wasn’t focused on the economy at the end of of which year.

The bigger problem for Bush’s economic legacy came in his last year in office as the Great Recession took hold, plunging the economy into its worst crisis since the Great Depression.

Jobs lost: 1.5 million
Unemployment: Rose by 4.2% to 5.5%
S&P 500: Ended the year at 1148.08, down 13%
GDP: 1.0%

Barack Obama – 2009

Obama took office at a brutal time. The global economy was in crisis.

presidents first year obama 2

Employers, starved for cash, were slashing payrolls. Unemployment was about to soar. GDP could tumble, resulting within the worst year for of which key reading in more than 60 years.

however that has a massive stimulus package passed early within the year, including tax cuts, along that has a bailout of the auto industry, things started off to turn around. The recession, which started off in December 2007, ended in June of 2009. along with stocks, after bottoming out in March, started off to climb, as investors poured back into the market to snap up some bargains.

Jobs lost: 4 million
Unemployment: Rose by 7.8% to 9.9%
S&P 500: Ended the year at 1,115.10, up 23.5%
GDP: Down 2.8%

Donald Trump – 2017

Trump took office with unemployment already low. however in his first year, the rate has fallen to its lowest point since 2000. GDP growth topped 3% in both the second along with third quarters.

presidents first year trump 2

along with the stock market continued to set record after record. The Dow rose about 5,000 points to nearly 25,000.

Trump ended the year that has a tax cut he predicts will spur even greater economic growth.

Jobs created: 1.7 million
Unemployment: Fell by 4.8% to 4.1%
S&P 500: At nearly 2,700, up about 20%
GDP: Up an annual average of 2.5% over the first three quarters. The first estimate of the 2017 annual GDP number is actually due out in January.

sy88pgw (brand new York) First published December 29, 2017: 2:47 PM ET

First-year presidential economies: by Carter to Trump

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